For film journalists and bloggers, the year 2010 doesn’t really come to an end until the night of February 27th in the US — or the morning of February 28th in Australia — where anybody who’s somebody in Hollywood will be seen walking the red carpet for the 83rd Academy Awards. Usually, though, the winners are dictated by the dozen or so award ceremonies that preceded the Oscars, which makes for a fairly dull watch for those of us playing at home beyond the occasional drunken speech and wardrobe malfunction. This year, however, I’m shocked to admit that I’m not as sure as I usually would be with my predictions. Perhaps that’s because I’ve been paying less attention than I usually would to the award season, but it’s more likely a result of just how exemplary 2010 was for cinema. In any case, I’m more excited this year for the Oscars than I’ve been in a long, long time as February 27th doesn’t look like it will be just another Groundhog Day.
Last year, the title for Best Picture was a David vs. Goliath duel between Kathryn Bigelow’s indie Iraq war movie The Hurt Locker and James Cameron’s 3D blockbuster Avatar. Rather predictably, that battle panned out much like it did in the Bible, with The Hurt Locker trumping Avatar in all the key categories. This year, the front-runners for Best Picture are David Fincher’s The Social Network and Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. Unlike last year’s favourites, these two films are quite similar; they’re both character-driven biopics, a category the Academy loves, about miscommunication in a communicative age. The two biggest differences? One is set in the past, the other is set in the present. And more crucially, one is British, the other is American.
These differences are key to why I believe The Social Network will take home gold, despite my personal preference of The King’s Speech. As a biopic about Mark Zuckerberg, the creator of Facebook and one of the most influential figures still living today, The Social Network has a considerable degree of relevance that The King’s Speech cannot match. Fincher’s film is a unique product of its time, which is why the Academy will probably try and cement its place in history as the film of the year. Furthermore, The Social Network was made in America, which means there’s a greater chance that those involved in the production are in similar circles to the voting members of the Academy, most of whom (but certainly not all) are US citizens. My point? Well, as they often say, it’s not about what you know, but who you know. That’s why Fincher, who has been a staple in Hollywood for nearly two decades, has the upper hand over Hooper, who is only now making his first splash from across the pond. Yes, it’s an ugly way of looking at it, but why do you think British films tend to dominate the British Film and Television Awards (BAFTA’s) and American films tend to dominate the Academy Awards? Bias is unavoidable.
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Of course, what’s exciting about this year’s Oscars is that there is a definite possibility that neither The Social Network nor The King’s Speech will win. Other contenders such as Black Swan, The Fighter and True Grit are all in with a chance, as each have demonstrated bursts of momentum throughout the awards season. Sure, they’re all underdogs in the race for Best Picture, but as the saying goes, every dog has its day. Time will tell if that day is February 28th, 2011.
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Below is a list of all the nominees for the 83rd Academy Awards, with my predictions highlighted in red:
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Kids are All Right
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Best Documentary Short Subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
Best Short Film (Animated)
Day & Night Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let’s Pollute Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) Bastien Dubois
Best Short Film (Live Action)
The Confession Tanel Toom
The Crush Michael Creagh
God of Love Luke Matheny
Na Wewe Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143 Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
Achievement in Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit
Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (Wally Pfister)
The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)
Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
I Am Love (Antonella Cannarozzi)
The King’s Speech (Jenny Beaven)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)
True Grit (Mary Zophres)
Achievement in Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Best Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop Banksy, director (Paranoid Pictures)
Gasland Josh Fox, director (Gasland Productions, LLC)
Inside Job Charles Ferguson, director (Representational Pictures)
Restrepo Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger, directors (Outpost Films)
Waste Land Lucy Walker, director (Almega Projects)
Achievement in Makeup
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
Achievement in Film Editing
Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
The Fighter (Pamela Martin)
The King’s Speech (Tariq Anwar)
127 Hours (Jon Harris)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Hors la Loi (Algeria)
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King’s Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
127 Hours (A.R. Rahman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
“Coming Home” from Country Strong Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from Tangled Music and Lyric by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3 Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Achievement in Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Achievement in Sound Mixing
Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
Achievement in Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)
The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini)
Original Screenplay
Another Year (Mike Leigh)
The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy)
Inception (Christopher Nolan)
The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko)
The King’s Speech (David Seidler)
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